Xi Jinping's Speech on Armistice Day

Over 100 years ago today the world war ended. Even though all the veterans of that war have died we should remember that political mistakes and lies can lead to places no one wanted to go. Political rationality is bounded, constrained by imperfect information and so miscalculations, mistakes, are inevitable. A good heuristic seeks to create a system wherein any mistake or miscalculation does not result in catastrophe.

Thereto, also today, China's Xi Jinping claimed he does not want a new cold war.

Just as our rationality is constrained by imperfect information it is also constrained by path dependence of our own past choices and other actors. Even if Xi is entirely honest and does not want a new cold war  he may be compelled to one whether from domestic factional conflicts or foreign pressure: adventurism and deception can lead places no one wants to go.