Zeihan is wrong about Maritime piracy.
Peter Zeihan predicts
1. a collapse in the U.S. led post-war free-trading world order resulting in
a. increased maritime piracy
b. literal famines.
Fortunately he is wrong. I think the most effective way to refute him is to work from the details up to the broad principles.
Not only is maritime piracy not increasing, it is declining, and likely to decline even further. Here are the citations.
https://technative.io/sea-piracy-is-at-a-low-but-data-driven-technology-will-drive-it-down-even-further/
https://maritime-executive.com/article/imb-global-piracy-reached-a-28-year-low-in-2021
https://www.zdnet.com/article/hashish-and-pirates-how-ai-is-cleaning-up-the-high-seas/
https://maritime-executive.com/article/piracy-plummets-in-gulf-of-guinea
https://www.ft.com/content/3c67767c-301c-41b9-bbdc-189546dc04ef
https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/maritime-security/maritime-piracy-and-armed-robbery-at-lowest-level-in-decades/
https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/the-year-in-piracy-a-historic-low-in-attacks-but-many-threats-remain
This is the only article in the past six months which agrees with Zeihan. I present it last to show confirmation bias, to illustrate cognitive biases. If you even read this its because you likely know about Zeihan, likely had no opinion about piracy before, and thus likely agree with him since he appears (APPEARS) better informed than you. Even though I've presented about 10 articles refuting Zeihan (he really is wrong) you are likeliest to read and retain this article, because it's last in a long list.
Aside from paying attention to actual facts accurate analysts recognize their own cognitive biases. Zeihan overlooked the fact greatly improved and ever improving communication and coordination, e.g. big data driven AI and the common interests of all states against piracy are why no, piracy isn't about to explode (nor is the U.S. led world order about to collapse).
https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/singapore-strait-riddled-with-increased-pirate-attacks-and-robberies/
Personally? I would be embarassed were I him. I'm not, fortunately.
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