Bounded Rationality of political Actors

All too often purported analysts wish to dismiss literal HEADS OF STATE as being

*crazy

*stupid

*irrational

*physically ill

When in fact it is MUCH likelier they are

*blinded by their own ambition

*blinded by their own wishful thinking.

These are cognitive biases and they are inevitably  found in nearly ALL heads of state. 

To even become a head of state one must be terribly ambitious and basically make the center of their life seizing and retaining state power -- this constrains politicians into policies which from other perspectives are "irrational". A good formula for seizing power isn't necessarily or even likely to be a good formula for weilding state power effectively and rationally.

As well as being blinded by their own ambition, or constrained thereby into policies and choices, and usually both heads of state are generally speaking blinded and blind others with wishful thinking: basically believing their own propaganda. You see, telling people What They Want To Hear (confirmation bias!) makes you popular. Telling people what they do NOT want to hear makes you very unpopular (more confirmation bias!). Since elections are popularity contests a politician who tells you the ugly truth ... very likely will not even seize, let alone hold and yield state power.

To my way of thinking then the best approach to state power is sidestepping it, avoiding it -- and channeling it. Create conditions which will tend to favor certain outcomes and those outcomes are likelier to happen regardless of who actually holds public office.

Political actors are rational in that they are power maximizers, calculating. But, their rationality is bounded. It is highly constrained by path dependant variables and their Determinants:  geography, climate, language, demography, culture, thus religion, educational level, economic factors too of course, all these exert constraining influences on politicians, whose rationality is already constrained by their own ambition and charismatic optimism, which may turn out to be ... false.

This is one more reason Ukraine will win: since I want Ukraine to win quickly and at lowest cost possible I am not painting the details for you. I want you to learn to think for yourself.